Ante-Post Cheltenham

2012-01-30T10:57:00.000-08:00

I have never been one to consider ante-post betting. For me it seems madness to tie your money up in a horse that isn’t due to run for another month or so. For me it always made sense to wait until the final declarations were announced and go from there. That way you avoid a lot of unnecessary work investigating the form of potential runners, only for them to be declared for another race at the festival. For the sake of maybe getting a slightly better price, the effort and ‘risk’ involved just didn’t seem worth it.

However over the past few weeks, as the build-up to Cheltenham has slowly gathered momentum, I have found myself being enticed by the ante-post prices on offer. Sure I still think some of the Ante-Post markets are pointless and almost impossible to predict or decypher, but others have begun to appeal, for a variety of reasons.

The novice and juvenile races are of obvious appeal where ante-post betting is concerned. I was happy (and slightly annoyed) to see Pearl Swan run an impressive race at Cheltenham in the Juvenile trial last weekend. I was taken by how he won on his first appearance for Paul Nicholls and felt that even Nicholls wasn’t quite sure/aware of what kind of animal he had on his hands. After harking on to anyone in the office who would listen to me about it’s chances, I committed the biggest mistake of them all. Firstly I failed to check it’s ante-post price for the Triumph Hurdle and then secondly, failed to back it on the day at a huge price of 8-1! (Although in hindsight I was grateful to be spared the annoyance of seeing the result over-turned in Grumeti’s favour). After watching the thrilling finish and seeing the Swan come out on top, you would think I would be searching out each and every person I had spoke to about Pearl Swan’s and revelling in my ‘genius’. After all I had been justified in my support of an unfancied big priced 'winner'. But that wasn't the case. My first thought was to that of the ante-post market and the price of Pearl Swan.

Saturday's performance led to his ante-post price being slashed, in some places to as short as 5-1! There are still bookmakers offering more attractive odds of 10-1 but they were slashed none the less.

Now don’t get me wrong, 10-1 is nothing to be shirked at, in fact giving it ‘beat’ Grumeti, the pre-race ante-post favourite, you would be happy to back him at that price to repeat the performance and frank the form. It's just I can't shake the feeling of 'what if'.

You see I like to think I was one of a small minority who had seen the potential of Pearl Swan’s debut at Taunton (judging by his SP on Saturday I think I probably was). The race It won first time out wasn’t the strongest and was part of a low-key card, meaning few people were really watching or taking note of any of the runners that day. I thought I had a way-in, an edge on all the bookmakers and my fellow punters. I certainly didnt expect Paul Nicholls to throw him into such a strong race as Saturday’s, especially just nine days after having his first run over hurdles, and expose him to the world and the Cheltenham faithful. That ‘edge’ I thought I had discovered was taken away from me in one failed swoop! Like I said, 10-1 is still a huge price, an attractive price, but I just can’t back the Swan any more. Of course if I did, and it won, I would be a lot better of financially. But I wouldn’t be able to shake that feeling of ‘what if?’ ‘What if’ I had backed him after his debut at Tuanton, imagine the price! Imagine the riches! Instead I am left scoffing at a quote of 10-1. Madness I know.

That whole debacle has led to me ignoring the juvenile and novices markets. Instead I have been ‘studying’ the other big races at the festival. Now for someone who is used to taking the prices on offer either on the morning of the race or 15 minutes prior, I am some what baffled and amazed by some of the prices available. In terms of the bigger races I thought I would scout around and see if there were any hidden gems available at big prices, a horse who might spring a shock come March. Instead I found myself rubbing my eyes in disbelief at the value on offer for backing the ‘obvious’ favourites. A few clicks, and not a lot of thought or effort later, and I found myself with a fourfold paying over 15-1 for four of the strongest, and most proven favourites of the festival.

Put together Big Buck’s - 4-7 and seemingly invincible around Cheltenham and any other course for that matter. Hurricane Fly - 4-5 and a huge price for a race where the only threat he faces are from inexperienced rivals who surely lack the class of the Fly. Quevega - Evens and an appealing price in what looks a very weak renewal this year. Finally and perhaps the most ‘risky’ of them all, Sizing Europe - 2-1 with his old adversary Big Zeb again the biggest danger in what will surely be a two-horse race between the market principles with preference for Europe due to his performance in the Tingle Creek, which was perhaps one of his best to date. Add them to your betslip and you have yourself a very tempted and interesting ‘investment’ opportunity.

I am not for one minute saying they are all ‘nailed on’ ‘dead certs’. But if anyone can provide me with a reason why or how any of these four will be beaten come March, I will happily listen, nod my head and then ignore you. For me, 15-1 for these champions to retain their titles looks just too good to resist. Each are proven over course and distance and each has shown form (bar Quevega) this year to show no indication that their powers appear to be weighing.

It is also safe to say that neither Big Buck’s or Hurricane Fly will be any where near these prices on the day. In fact an ante-post double on these two alone will double your money plus a bit more. Insane when you consider Big Buck’s has now won 15 races on the spin and doesn’t look like being beaten any time soon. Whilst the Fly disposed of a small but quality field with supreme ease on Sunday at Leopardstown with supreme ease.

The way I see it, you have two options. You can get yourself worked up, like I did over Pearl Swan, by trying to predict the fortunes of unexposed untried horses in races where there is no real direct form and end up confused and/or deluded. Or you can simply trust that come March, the obvious will happen. Night will still follow day, Europe will still be in financial meltdown and Big Buck’s and Hurricane Fly will be 2 or 3 lengths clear on the bridle climbing the Cheltenham hill. I know which way makes sense to me.

Pictures courtesy of Racing Post and The Sun

I was just thinking...

Ante-Post Cheltenham